The new class of variable rate MLPs that contain refining assets are having an excellent run of things since their IPOs. Their distributions are entirely dependent upon their effective crack spreads for the quarter so trying to put together a solid estimate is difficult.
Difficult shouldn’t stop anyone from trying, so below please find my attempt for Northern Tier Energy but keep in mind that the margin of error is rather substantial (ok really huge) and all the inputs used are just “estimates.” Some of the inputs are based on the guidance the company provided in late December and some are based on U.S. Energy Information Administration data.
The lowest estimate of $1.29 (shown in the footnote) feels like it is the safer more reasonable estimate and would still be an excellent performance for the quarter. The LOW estimate in the table of $1.53 is based on a slightly different method for estimating the hedging impact. The HIGH estimate of $2.11 is the moonshot number that might make the market down right ecstatic. Their actual crack spread is the key driver and will be the big wild card until they report their numbers, here’s the analysis:
Disclosure: Long NTI, Short NTI Put options, Long NTI call options