Key adjustments from last week:
- Adjusted SEP for a 4.5 million unit equity offering at $37.25 on April 2 (4% discount to prior close).
- Adjusted NKA for its equity restructuring announced on April 3:
- Equity restructuring combines and restructures subordinated units and prior incentive distribution rights into a new class of incentive distribution rights (New IDRs)
- All 33.8 million subordinated units and prior incentive distribution rights eliminated (Carlyle/Riverstone Funds retain their voting percentage at 74.9% even though remaining direct equity ownership dropped to 50.3%)
- Outstanding units reduced from 68.3 million (including subordinated units) to 34.5 million. Managing member retains 1.98% interest
- New IDRs receive 48% of any cash distributions above the existing minimum quarterly distribution (“MQD”) of $0.35 per unit, after payment of any arrearages in the MQD from prior quarters
- I applaud Carlyle/Riverstone for this supportive equity restructuring (the market seemed to as well with NKA up 20.4% for the week, during a pretty choppy week)
- Adjusted ETP for a 12 million unit equity offering at $48.05 on April 4 (4.6% discount to prior close).
- Adjusted ALDW, CVRR and NTI forward estimates to provide for modeled quarterly estimates beyond the next four quarters (instead of using a lowered estimated average distribution after 1 year).
- Modeled forward estimates provide for an ongoing decline rate in the estimated crack spreads (sort of a reversion to the mean concept)
- Also includes currently scheduled turnarounds for the various refineries
- Let me reiterate that ALL projections are ALWAYS wrong, these variable rate refinery MLPs will have very volatile distributions, they are and always will be impossible moving targets and I am constantly adjusting these as the crack spread moves around
- Here’s a chart of TNH’s full distribution history to get an idea of what “variable” can mean over an extended period:
- AMID remains my best short idea, if you are long please look closely at the recent SEC filings and consider selling.
- PAID SUBSCRIBER VERSION: Conformed some changes to match the April Monthly report and adjusted some charts / tables to enhance readability.
The MLP Protocol Monthly Analytics Report for April is now available, the May 2013 report will be available after April 26th.
MLP Protocol Weekly Snapshot report: MLPP 040513 Snapshot vFree