BPT 1Q15 Guess the Financials Results

BPT posted its 10-Q for the period ending March 31, 2015 on May 8. (10-Q Filing)

Here is the comparison of actual results to my modeled estimates.

Summary of Key Metrics:

BPT 1Q 2Q15 Key Metrics v3

(Click to view)

Statements of Cash Earnings and Distributions:

BPT 2Q15 Statements of Cash Earnings v3

(Click to view)

I will continue to adjust the Production Tax calculations to try and reduce that margin of error in the model. Another key assumption for the next distribution estimate will be the actual royalty production for the period ending June 30, 2015. There are seasonal aspects to production in the Prudhoe Bay because maintenance and capital expenditures usually occur during the summer months and typically cause a temporary decline in overall field production.

Timing of Additional BPT Posts:

  • Estimated 3Q15 Distribution: ~July 1
  • Actual 3Q15 Distribution Announced: ~July 3
  • Actual 2Q15 10-Q Filed: ~August 7

Disclosure: On the morning of April 7 after BPT announced its distribution for April, I closed various long BPT Put positions when the BPT  unit price started to increase (in the face of a ~63% distribution cut! i.e. trade the market you see not what you expect to see). I may look to buy additional BPT Put Options although I freely admit that I am kicking myself for not buying Call Options right after I closed those Put Options on April 7. The bounce in BPT’s unit price since then has been incredible.

About Philip Trinder

President of MLP Protocol, investor, trader, and proponent of Master Limited Partnerships.
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