BPT Guess the Financials Game 070615

Summary of Key Metrics:

BPT 3Q15 Key Metrics

(Click to view)

Statements of Cash Earnings and Distributions:

BPT 3Q15 Statements of Cash Earnings

(Click to view)

I will continue to adjust the Production Tax calculations to try and reduce that margin of error in the model. Another key assumption for the estimated distribution in July will be the actual royalty production for the period ending June 30, 2015. The royalty production amount will likely be the largest source of margin of error for the July estimate. There are seasonal aspects to production in the Prudhoe Bay because maintenance and capital expenditures usually occur during the summer months and typically cause a temporary decline in overall field production.

Timing of Additional BPT Posts:

  • Actual 3Q15 Distribution Announced: ~Week of July 6
  • Actual 2Q15 10-Q Filed: ~August 7

Disclosure: Based on my estimated increase in the distribution I am long Call Options (so based on Murphy’s Law, BPT will probably get hammered after announcing the distribution).

About Philip Trinder

President of MLP Protocol, investor, trader, and proponent of Master Limited Partnerships.
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